Mortgage services.

Builder confidence levels continued kicking a sad little can down the same long and lonesome road. The September National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) held flat at 32, extending the streak to 17 consecutive months below the key 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. While the overall index isn't pretty, there was some positive movement in the component index that focuses on sales expectations over the next 6 months, which rose to its highest levels in 6 months. These expectations are responsible for keeping overall confidence from sinking to new long-term lows--largely weighed down by historically low buyer traffic. With affordability being a key concern, the recent drop in mortgage rates could help break that traffic jam, assuming it sticks. The rate outlook got a bit fuzzier in the 2nd half of the week as the average 30yr fixed rate ticked up somewhat sharply from the lowest levels in a year to the highest levels in 2 weeks.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Pricing pressure remains widespread. NAHB reported that 36% of builders cut home prices in September, with an average reduction of 5%. Meanwhile, 64% of builders offered sales incentives—still an elevated share by historical standards. Regionally, confidence was weakest in the West, where affordability challenges are most severe. The South tracked near the national average, while the Midwest and Northeast held relatively steadier, reflecting the persistent gap between high-cost and lower-cost housing markets.

The Census Bureau’s latest Residential Construction report showed a mixed picture for August, highlighted by a sharp drop in building permits. Total housing starts (the groundbreaking phase of construction) fell 2.3% to a 1.398 million annual rate, led by a 3.4% decline in single-family starts to 906k. Multifamily activity eased 1.5% to 464k but continues to trend higher over the past several months, signaling sustained demand for apartments and other multi-unit projects. The standout shift came on the permitting side. Total permits dropped 6.8% to a 1.264 million annual pace—one of the steepest monthly declines in years. Single-family permits slid 5.1% to 827k and multifamily permits fell 9.3% to 437k. Importantly, though, permits had been running well above starts for much of the year. This latest pullback brings the two measures into closer alignment, suggesting a more balanced pipeline. Note the broadly flat pace of housing starts.  This suggests a fairly steady pace of construction for now.

What a difference a week makes for mortgage application demand. As we noted last week, mortgage rates were already trending lower than those captured in the weekly survey numbers from MBA and Freddie Mac.  The expectation was that refinance activity would be surging in this week's data.  That turns out to have been an understatement. For the first time in several years, we have to take our chart of MBA's refinance applications all the way back to 2022 in order to provide context for the levels achieved this week.  Until now, September 2024 set the high water mark. That's a whopping 58% increase in refi demand versus last week, and it's 70% higher than the same week one year ago. The Purchase Index rose only 3%, but that leaves it near the best levels since early 2023. Overall applications were up 29.7%, the 2nd biggest jump since the last week of 2022, and in outright terms, application activity rose by the highest amount since July 2021! There are already clouds on the horizon, unfortunately.  On the same day these numbers were released, rates began moving sharply higher in response to this week's Fed announcement (why?). The rate spike continued on Thursday in response to economic data.  All told, rates are easily back up to the highest levels since before the September 5th jobs report.  Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist noted "homeowners with larger loans jumped first, as the average loan size on refinances reached its highest level in the 35-year history of our survey."